Gold heads into a week packed with ISM data, the midterm elections and Friday's jobs report at $3,875.53, after a 3.58% drop that the usual macro drivers don't fully explain.
Gold starts the week at $3,875.53 an ounce, down $143.82, or 3.58%, from the prior close of $4,019.35. That caps a rough stretch: down about 2.5% on the week, 6.3% on the month and 10.4% year to date. Spot now sits well below its 52-week high of $5,405.
Where gold stands going in
Silver took the harder hit. It fell 6.1% to $49.12 and is down 18% over the past month. That pushed the gold-silver ratio to 78.9, a climb News Karnataka also flagged. When silver falls faster than gold, it usually means speculative and industrial demand is retreating faster than safe-haven demand.
The usual macro suspects don't explain the selloff. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.98% from 4.96%. The 10-year real yield, the number gold tracks most closely, slipped to 2.63% from 2.64%. The broad dollar index eased slightly to about 121.3. Neither move is the kind that knocks 3.6% off gold. The fed funds rate is unchanged at 3.88%, and 10-year breakeven inflation is flat at 2.34%.
Two caveats apply. The yield data runs through October 29 and the dollar figure through October 23, so both may miss the latest moves. Positioning also doesn't point to a stampede. As of October 27, managed-money funds held a net long of about 105,600 contracts in gold futures, up roughly 1,400 on the week. That report predates the drop, so any unwinding of those longs won't show until the next one. For now, the cause of the latest slide is unclear. Our why is gold moving page tracks the drivers as they develop.
The calendar, day by day
Monday, Nov. 2: ISM Manufacturing PMI (10 a.m. ET). The forecast is 54.7, against 54.5 prior. Readings above 50 signal expansion. A strong print supports the case for the Fed keeping rates elevated. That tends to weigh on gold, which pays no interest.
Tuesday, Nov. 3: JOLTS job openings and the midterm elections. Openings are expected at 7.11 million, against 7.08 million. A cooling labor market would revive rate-cut hopes. The congressional elections are the week's wild card. Rediff MoneyWiz reported that the midterms and jobs data are the key tests for gold and silver this week. Outcomes that shift expectations for fiscal policy could move Treasury yields and the dollar, the two channels that matter most for gold. The direction is genuinely unclear, and close races may not resolve overnight.
Wednesday, Nov. 4: ISM Services PMI (10 a.m. ET). The forecast is 54.9, unchanged from last month. Services make up the bulk of the US economy, so a surprise here carries real weight for rate expectations.
Thursday, Nov. 5: Weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m. ET). The forecast is 197,000, against 194,000. Claims at these levels suggest layoffs aren't spreading.
Friday, Nov. 6: October jobs report (8:30 a.m. ET). This is the main event. Payrolls are forecast at 63,000 after 29,000 the prior month. Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% after 0.1%. Soft hiring paired with tame wages has historically been the friendliest mix for gold, because it tends to pull real yields lower. Hot wages cut the other way.
Friday, Nov. 6: University of Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (10 a.m. ET). Sentiment is forecast at 47.8, against 46.3, which is still a gloomy level. The inflation expectations gauge last read 4.7%, and no forecast is listed. That stands out against the 2.34% breakeven priced in bond markets. Households expect far more inflation than traders do. That gap helps explain why physical gold demand can hold up even when futures markets sell off.
What it means for you
Sellers: Dealers price by the gram. Pure 24K is now about $124.48 per gram, and 14K gold is about $72.89. Friday's jobs report could produce a sizable swing, so check the live gold price on the day you sell, and get more than one quote. Our guide on how to sell gold covers what to ask.
Buyers: Lower spot prices don't always mean lower retail prices. Dealer premiums often widen in volatile weeks, so compare the total cost over spot, not just the headline price.
Holders: Perspective helps. Gold is down about 2% over the past year despite the 10.4% year-to-date slide. A week with an election and a jobs report is likely to be noisy, and that noise says little about gold's longer-term role in a portfolio.
Sources
Frequently asked questions
What is the gold price going into the week of November 2, 2026?
Gold is at $3,875.53 an ounce, down $143.82, or 3.58%, from the prior close of $4,019.35, and down about 10.4% year to date.
When is the October jobs report, and what is expected?
It is released Friday, Nov. 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET. Forecasts call for 63,000 jobs, a 4.2% unemployment rate and 0.3% wage growth.
Did rising yields or a stronger dollar cause gold's drop?
The data doesn't show it. The 10-year real yield slipped to 2.63% and the dollar index eased slightly, so the cause of the latest drop is unclear.
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AIJessica · AI market analystJessica is one of GoldTrack USA's AI writers. Figures are checked automatically against live market data, and sources are listed above. Not financial advice.